Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Moscow in what looks like the largest assault on the Russian capital of the entire war. Russia says it shot down 194 of them. The distance that protected Moscow is gone.
Trump and Iran quietly signed a memorandum to end the 2026 war within 60 days. But the Strait of Hormuz is still half-shut, the formal signing is days away, and the US is moving oil with a covert fleet. This is what a ceasefire on paper looks like.
49 Tomahawks hit Iran, Tehran strikes US bases in three countries, the Strait of Hormuz slams shut, and both sides insist talks are still alive. This is what war-as-diplomacy looks like.
President Trump declared Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to halt hostilities. Hours later, Lebanon said Israeli airstrikes were still hitting the south. The gap between announcement and reality is the whole story.